Published 8/23/24 at 3:45 a.m.
By Andre' GW Hagestedt, Oregon Coast Beach Connection
(Portland, Oregon) – Some parts of the Pacific Northwest may be looking at a shorter summer this year, while the eastern portions of Washington and Oregon are staring down warmer-than-usual conditions and perhaps some more dry conditions. The Oregon coast and Washington coast may not get the coveted “Second Summer” conditions during fall, either. (Graphic courtesy NOAA, showing predicted rain for September through November)
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The Climate Prediction Center of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) just released its fall forecast for 2024 and the majority of it calls for warmer temperatures around the country, with the western halves of Oregon and Washington some of the exceptions. While NOAA chimed in with wetter-than-usual conditions from September through November, it was more or less 50/50 on if this region would be warmer or cooler.
Either way, La Niña is going to be in effect from September through November, according to NOAA's Climate Predictions Center (CPC). That could go longer.
“CPC forecasters expect the Pacific Northwest will most likely be warmer than typical only in eastern Oregon and extreme southeast Washington,” NOAA said. “Wetter-than-typical is most likely for western Washington and northwest Oregon during the same period.”
This week will see a return of 80-degree weather to inland Oregon and Washington, but some regional forecasters are saying it's entirely possible this is it for the big summer weather, given NOAA's long-range prediction.
Most years – but not every year – September and October bring the best of weather to the coastal regions of Washington and Oregon, what's called Second Summer by many. This year looks to have less of a chance of that for areas like Westport, Cannon Beach, Bandon, Newport or Manzanita. The extreme southern part of the state's coast – from Port Orford southward – may still get its Chetco effect, thanks to the California region looking at a slightly bigger chance of warmer-than-usual temps.
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For September, NOAA thinks the Oregon coast and Washington coast are going to be rainier than many years, however.
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“Above-normal precipitation is favored for a small coastal area of the Pacific Northwest, consistent with the CFSv2 forecast and possible early impacts of La Niña,” NOAA said.
For La Niña events, NOAA said upwelling increases on the Pacific coast of the Americas, which brings cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface. These then push the jet stream forward, and it tends to bring drought to the southern U.S. and heavier rains in the Pacific Northwest.
“La Niña is favored to develop during September-October-November (66% chance) and persist through the winter 2024-2025 (near 70% chance),” NOAA said.
A winter and fall full of upwelling often brings more interesting things onshore to the Oregon coast, however. You may end up with more creatures on the beaches, and the possibilities of glowing phytoplankton increase a bit.
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Andre' GW Hagestedt is editor, owner and primary photographer / videographer of Oregon Coast Beach Connection, an online publication that sees over 1 million pageviews per month. He is also author of several books about the coast.
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